Are We in the High Tech Upturn?

As much as everyone would like a simple yes/no answer to this question, more often than not, the answer is "it depends." For starters, the total supply chain has several segments, each having relationships to the others. The biggest chunks are semiconductor device companies (both fabless and IDM), manufacturing providers (foundry, probe, assembly, test) and equipment and materials suppliers. The device companies typically see the changes first, then the manufacturing providers, then the equipment and materials providers. Because there is lagtime in the system, the changes get amplified and the equipment guys (caboose) may not realize what's going on until after the device guys (engine) has already left the track. 

A second factor is which device segment you're involved in. During this downturn, the memory guys have been particularly hard hit because of a massive overbuild of capacity that led to price wars that scuddled all hopes of profitability. Other segments (e.g. microprocessors, logic, analog, discrete, etc.) were impacted to varying degrees.

The third factor is end market. The growth rate in PCs, cell phones, consumer products, automotive, etc. have different growth rates, inventory positions, etc.

All that being said, most forecasters are guardedly optimistic about the coming months for most market segments. Some fear there may be relatively minor correction after the end of the year, but generally see positive growth over the next couple of years. A word to the wise, as with car mileage estimates, "your results may vary."